science fiction readings
science fact readings
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ABSTRACT. This paper argues that at least one of the following
propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go
extinct before reaching a "posthuman" stage; (2) any posthuman
civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of
simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3)
we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows
that the transhumanist dogma that there is a significant chance that
we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is
false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of
other consequences of this result are also discussed.
remarks
Shimon Edelman <se37@cornell.edu>
Last modified on Thu Jan 16 14:19:51 2003